# How much stronger can you get in a year? Data from 350,000 lifters

> Drug-tested raw lifters typically add about 4% to their total in a year (median), 8 to 10% in the first year, less with each later meet. By lift, age and level.

Published 2026-10-17 by Valter Andersson (https://povver.ai/about). Canonical: https://povver.ai/blog/how-fast-lifters-get-stronger

## Short answer

- In 98,538 pairs of meets 9 to 15 months apart (351,254 drug-tested raw powerlifters), the median total rose 4.0% for men and 4.5% for women, and 8.2% and 10.1% in the first year.
- About three in four improved. By lift, men gained a median 4.6% on squat, 3.8% on bench and 3.6% on deadlift between meets a year apart, and women 4.9%, 5.0% and 3.8%.
- From year 1, each doubling of time added about the same few points in this cohort, consistent with shrinking gains per year. For lifters past their 10th meet, the median gain is about zero.
- These are competitors who kept competing. Age, starting level and bodyweight change the pace, and the limits section says what the data cannot show.

Drug-tested raw powerlifters typically add about 4% to their competition total in a year (median, between meets 9 to 15 months apart), and 8 to 10% in their first year of competing. In the OpenPowerlifting data that is 98,538 pairs of meets (68,318 men, 30,220 women) from 351,254 lifters, and about three in four pairs improved. The median gain falls with each later meet. On a 400 kg / 882 lb total, 4% is 16 kg / 35 lb. All of these lifters kept competing, so the numbers describe competitors, not everyone who lifts.

## How much stronger can you get in a year?

| If you are | Typical gain in a year (median) |
|---|---|
| In your first year of competing | +8.2% men, +10.1% women |
| Between any two meets a year apart | +4.0% men, +4.5% women |
| Between your 5th and 6th meet | +2.0% men, +2.5% women |
| After your 10th meet | +0.3% men, 0.0% women |

*Median change in competition total, drug-tested raw full-power meets: 68,318 male and 30,220 female pairs of meets from 351,254 lifters (OpenPowerlifting, results to 13 October 2026). Rows 2 to 4 use meets 9 to 15 months apart; rows 3 and 4 by the number of the first meet of the pair. About one lifter in four gains 0.5% or less in a year.*

What those percentages mean on the bar:

| Competition total | 4% in a later year | 8.2% in the first year |
|---|---|---|
| 300 kg / 661 lb | about 12 kg / 26 lb | about 25 kg / 54 lb |
| 400 kg / 882 lb | about 16 kg / 35 lb | about 33 kg / 72 lb |
| 500 kg / 1,102 lb | about 20 kg / 44 lb | about 41 kg / 90 lb |

*Arithmetic on the medians above, not separate data.*

> Among drug-tested raw powerlifters, the median gain falls with each later meet.

## How much stronger can you get on squat, bench and deadlift in a year?

| Lift | Men | Women |
|---|---|---|
| Squat | +4.6% | +4.9% |
| Bench press | +3.8% | +5.0% |
| Deadlift | +3.6% | +3.8% |
| Total | +4.0% | +4.5% |

*Median change in the best successful attempt between consecutive meets 9 to 15 months apart. 68,252 to 68,318 pairs for men and 30,208 to 30,220 for women in each row.*

## How much stronger do lifters get in their first years?

Two views of the same data. The first takes every lifter with a meet near the one-year mark. The second follows only lifters still competing at about 1, 2 and 4 years, so the same people show up at every mark.

| Time since first meet | Men: median gain (middle half) | Women: median gain (middle half) |
|---|---|---|
| About 1 year, all lifters with a meet near it | +8.2% (3.6 to 14.2) | +10.1% (4.9 to 16.8) |
| About 1 year, lifters still competing at 4 years | +8.4% (3.8 to 14.3) | +11.9% (6.4 to 18.8) |
| About 2 years, same lifters | +13.1% (6.7 to 21.6) | +18.3% (11.2 to 27.4) |
| About 4 years, same lifters | +17.4% (8.4 to 28.1) | +23.7% (14.0 to 35.3) |

*Change in competition total from a lifter's first qualifying meet, drug-tested raw full-power meets. Row 1 is all 51,453 men and 26,879 women with a meet near one year; rows 2 to 4 are the same 8,830 men and 4,764 women. Middle half means the 25th to 75th percentile. OpenPowerlifting, results to 13 October 2026.*

Other studies measured different people and outcomes, so the table gives each as it was reported:

| Study | Who | What was measured | First year | Longer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This analysis | 351,254 drug-tested raw competitors | Competition total | 8.2% men, 10.1% women | 17.4% men and 23.7% women at 4 years, lifters still competing |
| Latella 2024 | Powerlifters | Competition total, modelled | About 7.5 to 12.5% | Up to about 20% after 10 years, females faster |
| Steele 2023 | 14,690 gym clients on minimal-dose machine training | Machine strength | About 30 to 50% | About 50 to 60% at 6 years, plateau by 1 to 2 years |

Our first-year figures sit inside Latella's range. The 10-year figures use different time axes and samples, so we leave them out of the comparison. Gym clients gain far more in percent, but their samples and what was measured differ too.

## Does progress follow a pattern?

Yes, in this data. From the 1-year mark, every doubling of time added about the same number of points. Men gained 4.7 points going from 1 year to 2, and 4.3 going from 2 years to 4. Women gained 6.4 and 5.4. That is consistent with strength growing roughly with the logarithm of time, where each extra year buys less than the last. It is only two doublings in one cohort, though, not a fitted model. Steele found a linear-log shape in gym clients, and Latella also presented powerlifters' strength on a logarithmic time scale.

The median shows no step between "novice" and "intermediate" either. Between consecutive meets 9 to 15 months apart, it falls smoothly:

| Between qualifying meets | Men | Women |
|---|---|---|
| 1st to 2nd | +6.6% | +7.9% |
| 2nd to 3rd | +4.2% | +5.0% |
| 3rd to 4th | +3.3% | +3.6% |
| 4th to 5th | +2.5% | +2.8% |
| 5th to 6th | +2.0% | +2.5% |
| 6th to 10th | +1.4% | +1.7% |
| 10th and later | +0.3% | 0.0% |

*Median change in total between consecutive qualifying meets 9 to 15 months apart, by the number of the first meet of the pair. At least 1,592 pairs in every row. A qualifying meet is a drug-tested, raw, full-power result with a numeric placing, so a lifter's "1st" may not be their debut. The rows mix lifters of different ages and starting levels.*

## What changes the pace?

Age, starting level and bodyweight each shifted the median by more points than the gap between the sexes did.

| Age at the first meet of the pair | Men | Women |
|---|---|---|
| Under 20 | +9.2% | +8.0% |
| 20 to 29 | +3.8% | +5.0% |
| 30 to 39 | +2.3% | +3.7% |
| 40 to 49 | +1.6% | +2.8% |
| 50 and over | +0.7% | +1.8% |

*Median change in total between meets 9 to 15 months apart. Younger lifters are also earlier in their careers, so this table mixes age and experience; it is not the effect of ageing alone.*

| Starting level (DOTS, quarter of lifters) | Men | Women |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest quarter | +5.2% | +6.7% |
| Second quarter | +3.6% | +4.9% |
| Third quarter | +2.6% | +3.4% |
| Top quarter | +1.4% | +2.0% |

*Median change in total, 9 to 15 months apart, among lifters whose bodyweight changed less than 2%. DOTS is a bodyweight-adjusted score. Men's quarters begin at 332.6, 373.1 and 412.1, women's at 286.5, 331.7 and 376.6. Stronger lifters are also further along, so the table cannot separate level from experience.*

| Bodyweight change | Men | Women |
|---|---|---|
| Down 5% or more | -1.2% | +0.8% |
| Down 2 to 5% | +1.5% | +3.1% |
| Within 2% | +2.9% | +3.9% |
| Up 2 to 5% | +5.3% | +5.6% |
| Up 5% or more | +9.1% | +8.2% |

*Median change in total, 9 to 15 months apart. Part of a bigger total is a bigger body.*

Women's medians are higher than men's in most rows above. The exceptions are lifters under 20, bodyweight gains of 5% or more, and pairs that start at the 10th meet or later. Latella's modelling also found faster progress for females.

## How many lifters stall or go backwards?

Among pairs of meets 9 to 15 months apart, 75.9% of men and 75.3% of women improved. A quarter gained 0.4% or less (men) or 0.5% or less (women), and 6.4% of men and 7.7% of women fell by 5% or more. The 10th to 90th percentile ran from -3.3% to +14.9% for men and from -3.8% to +15.7% for women.

> Among drug-tested raw powerlifters, one in four gains 0.5% or less between meets a year apart.

A 4% yearly gain is about a third of a percent a month, so a few flat weeks say little either way. [Progressive overload](/blog/progressive-overload) covers how to read a lift's trend, and [Double progression](/blog/when-to-add-weight) how the weight moves.

## How much muscle can you gain in a year?

This data cannot say. It measures competition totals, which are strength, and tells us nothing about muscle size. The nearest sourced figures are shorter and in untrained people: in an 8-week trial of 55 untrained women, arms that added load grew 22.9% in triceps thickness against 11.6% for arms that never did (Kassiano 2026, in [Progressive overload](/blog/progressive-overload)). We cite no year-long figure for trained lifters.

## What are the limits of this data?

- **Survivorship.** Only lifters who come back have a next meet. After a lifter's first qualifying meet, 46.3% of men and 50.9% of women had another within 24 months. The ones who did started slightly stronger: median first totals of 505 kg / 1,113 lb against 490 kg / 1,080 lb for men, and 282.5 kg / 623 lb against 267.5 kg / 590 lb for women. We cannot see what the lifters who stopped would have gained. Lifters who switched federation, equipment or tested status also drop out of this filter, so the share who stopped is an upper bound.
- **Meets are peaks.** A total at a meet follows a taper and a peak, so these gains run higher than an ordinary gym session shows, and a first meet is often under-prepared.
- **Competitors, not gym-goers.** These are drug-tested raw lifters in sanctioned meets. Gym populations gain differently, as the 14,690-client study shows.
- **Age and experience are tangled.** Age is recorded and training age is not, so every table above mixes the two. The gap between meets selects lifters too: those who return after a year are not those who return after three months.
- **No training data.** The files carry no program data, so they cannot say why anyone progressed.
- **Names as keys.** OpenPowerlifting numbers lifters who share a name, but a few records still merge or split.
- **Results to October 2026**, with a median result date of July 2022.

## How was this calculated?

We took the OpenPowerlifting bulk file of 17 October 2026 (4,050,248 rows, public domain) and kept drug-tested, raw, full-power meets with a numeric placing, a positive total and a bodyweight of 30 to 300 kg / 66 to 661 lb. That left 942,924 results from 351,254 lifters, of whom 50.0% had two or more meets and 30.4% three or more. We sorted each lifter's results by date, one result per date, and took the change between consecutive meets: (next total minus this total) divided by this total. The headline window is 270 to 455 days between meets. The 1-, 2- and 4-year marks use the meet closest to each mark, within 25%. Anyone with the OpenPowerlifting file can repeat this. The tables on this page are published as data: [opl-progress-2026-10-17.json](/assets/data/opl-progress-2026-10-17.json) (aggregates only, no lifter names).

Data as of 17 October 2026. Last reviewed 17 October 2026. Cite as: Povver, "How much stronger can you get in a year? Data from 350,000 lifters", povver.ai/blog/how-fast-lifters-get-stronger, 2026, using OpenPowerlifting data.

## How much stronger can you get in a year: common questions

### How much stronger can you get in a year?

Drug-tested raw powerlifters typically add about 4% to their total in a year. Between meets 9 to 15 months apart the median is 4.0% for men and 4.5% for women, and in the first year of competing 8.2% and 10.1%. About one pair in four gains 0.5% or less, and the median gain falls with each later meet.

### How much can you add to your squat, bench and deadlift in a year?

Between meets a year apart, men gained a median 4.6% on squat, 3.8% on bench press and 3.6% on deadlift. Women gained 4.9%, 5.0% and 3.8%. For a man on a 100 kg / 220 lb bench, 3.8% is about 4 kg / 8 lb, and for a woman 5.0% is about 5 kg / 11 lb.

### How long do newbie gains last?

They fade gradually in competition data. For men the median gain between meets falls from 6.6% (first to second) to 2.5% (fourth to fifth) and about 0% after the tenth, and in this cohort each doubling of time added roughly the same few points from year 1. Gym clients on minimal-dose training levelled off at 1 to 2 years (Steele 2023).

### Do women get stronger faster than men?

In percentages, a little. Between meets 9 to 15 months apart, women's median gain was 4.5% against 4.0% for men, and 10.1% against 8.2% in the first year. A 2024 growth-modelling study of powerlifters also found faster progress for females (Latella 2024).

### Do older lifters gain less?

Yes, in this data. Between meets 9 to 15 months apart, men who were under 20 at the first meet gained a median 9.2% and men 50 and over 0.7%. For women the figures were 8.0% and 1.8%. Younger lifters are also earlier in their careers, so age and experience are mixed.

### How much muscle can you gain in a year?

This data cannot say, because it measures strength, not muscle size. The nearest sourced figure is shorter and in untrained women: triceps thickness grew 22.9% in 8 weeks with progression and 11.6% without (Kassiano 2026).

### Is my progress normal?

For drug-tested raw lifters between meets a year apart, the middle half of pairs gained about 0.4 to 8.6% (men) or 0.5 to 9.6% (women), and a few percent is typical for an experienced competitor. Stronger lifters and older lifters gain less.

## Sources

1. OpenPowerlifting project, openpowerlifting-latest.zip (file of 2026-10-17, 4,050,248 rows; public domain). https://www.openpowerlifting.org
2. Latella C, van den Hoek D, Wolf M, Androulakis-Korakakis P, Fisher JP, Steele J, "Using Powerlifting Athletes to Determine Strength Adaptations Across Ages in Males and Females: A Longitudinal Growth Modelling Approach", Sports Medicine 2024. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40279-023-01962-6
3. Kassiano W, Santos-Melo V, Manske I, et al., "Progressive Overload Affects the Magnitude of Muscle Hypertrophy", Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise 2026. https://doi.org/10.1249/MSS.0000000000003968
4. Steele J, Fisher JP, Giessing J, Androulakis-Korakakis P, Wolf M, Kroeske B, Reuters R, "Long-Term Time-Course of Strength Adaptation to Minimal Dose Resistance Training Through Retrospective Longitudinal Growth Modeling", Research Quarterly for Exercise and Sport 2023. https://doi.org/10.1080/02701367.2022.2070592